The closely matched probabilities for second place in Zambia’s August 13, 2026 National Assembly election stem from a fragmented opposition facing UPND dominance. Recent boundary adjustments that boosted seats in UPND strongholds, combined with the ruling party’s expanded 15-party coalition, have consolidated its position while leaving PF, Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance, Socialist Party, and smaller groups competing for the remaining seats without a clear frontrunner. Ongoing economic pressures and low opposition visibility in key areas have kept the race for runner-up status fluid. A decisive regional swing, successful last-minute alliance consolidation, or stronger campaign turnout in Eastern or Copperbelt provinces could quickly separate the contenders before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNRPUP 44%
CF 44%
SP 44%
UPND 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
NRPUP
44%
CF
44%
SP
44%
UPND
41%
NRPUP 44%
CF 44%
SP 44%
UPND 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
NRPUP
$0 Vol.
44%
CF
$0 Vol.
44%
SP
$0 Vol.
44%
UPND
$0 Vol.
41%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.The closely matched probabilities for second place in Zambia’s August 13, 2026 National Assembly election stem from a fragmented opposition facing UPND dominance. Recent boundary adjustments that boosted seats in UPND strongholds, combined with the ruling party’s expanded 15-party coalition, have consolidated its position while leaving PF, Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance, Socialist Party, and smaller groups competing for the remaining seats without a clear frontrunner. Ongoing economic pressures and low opposition visibility in key areas have kept the race for runner-up status fluid. A decisive regional swing, successful last-minute alliance consolidation, or stronger campaign turnout in Eastern or Copperbelt provinces could quickly separate the contenders before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.The closely matched probabilities for second place in Zambia’s August 13, 2026 National Assembly election stem from a fragmented opposition facing UPND dominance. Recent boundary adjustments that boosted seats in UPND strongholds, combined with the ruling party’s expanded 15-party coalition, have consolidated its position while leaving PF, Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance, Socialist Party, and smaller groups competing for the remaining seats without a clear frontrunner. Ongoing economic pressures and low opposition visibility in key areas have kept the race for runner-up status fluid. A decisive regional swing, successful last-minute alliance consolidation, or stronger campaign turnout in Eastern or Copperbelt provinces could quickly separate the contenders before polling day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for second place in Zambia’s August 13, 2026 National Assembly election stem from a fragmented opposition facing UPND dominance. Recent boundary adjustments that boosted seats in UPND strongholds, combined with the ruling party’s expanded 15-party coalition, have consolidated its position while leaving PF, Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance, Socialist Party, and smaller groups competing for the remaining seats without a clear frontrunner. Ongoing economic pressures and low opposition visibility in key areas have kept the race for runner-up status fluid. A decisive regional swing, successful last-minute alliance consolidation, or stronger campaign turnout in Eastern or Copperbelt provinces could quickly separate the contenders before polling day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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