Skip to main content
icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

Ahsanul Hafiz 66%

Fatima Shaban 32%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$12,437 Vol.

Ahsanul Hafiz 66%

Fatima Shaban 32%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$12,437 Vol.

icon for Ahsanul Hafiz

Ahsanul Hafiz

$4,304 Vol.

66%

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$6,377 Vol.

32%

icon for Noor Tarun

Noor Tarun

$570 Vol.

1%

icon for Mark Bekkering

Mark Bekkering

$611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chris Rees

Chris Rees

$574 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election at 66 percent implied probability, ahead of NDP candidate Fatima Shaban at 31.5 percent, with other contenders including Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees at minimal levels. The September 3 vote follows the February 2026 resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum, who successfully switched to the federal Liberals in the same riding. Hafiz secured the Liberal nomination in May after a narrow ranked-ballot victory over Nathaniel Erskine-Smith that survived arbitration, bolstering party organization in a riding with shifting voter alignments. Recent candidate nominations closed in August, and active local campaigning on cost-of-living and housing issues has reinforced Hafiz's positioning among traders assessing the short timeline to election day.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$12,437
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election at 66 percent implied probability, ahead of NDP candidate Fatima Shaban at 31.5 percent, with other contenders including Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees at minimal levels. The September 3 vote follows the February 2026 resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum, who successfully switched to the federal Liberals in the same riding. Hafiz secured the Liberal nomination in May after a narrow ranked-ballot victory over Nathaniel Erskine-Smith that survived arbitration, bolstering party organization in a riding with shifting voter alignments. Recent candidate nominations closed in August, and active local campaigning on cost-of-living and housing issues has reinforced Hafiz's positioning among traders assessing the short timeline to election day.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$12,437
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

Related

icon for Will Susan Lahey win the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election?

Will Susan Lahey win the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election?

98%
icon for Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

64%
icon for Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?

Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?

45%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 66%, followed by "Fatima Shaban" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fatima Shaban" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.