Yabloko's exclusion from the September 2026 State Duma ballot underpins the 99.1% trader consensus against clearing the 5% proportional threshold. Russia's Supreme Court upheld a Rodina party challenge on August 10, removing the anti-war liberal party after its brief registration amid documented administrative hurdles, candidate disqualifications, and foreign agent designations that have constrained operations for years. Historical results show the party below the threshold in every national election since 1999, with state polling consistently placing it at 1-4% even during periods of modest urban support. Limited broadcast access and structural advantages for established parties further constrain viability. A successful final appeal or Constitutional Court reversal before voting concludes remains the primary, though low-probability, pathway that could alter the outcome.