Current trader consensus around 43–46.5% across multiple August precipitation bins for Seoul reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the final three weeks of the month. Historical climatology centers near 288–350 mm, driven by lingering East Asian monsoon moisture, localized convective storms, and occasional typhoon outer bands. Recent KMA guidance shows a persistent high-pressure ridge suppressing direct typhoon landfalls from systems like Dolphin and Chan-hom, while above-normal sea-surface temperatures and a lingering heat wave maintain elevated atmospheric moisture that could support either suppressed totals or episodic heavy rain. Model divergence on steering patterns and tropical cyclone recurvature keeps both sub-250 mm and 400 mm+ outcomes competitively priced, with updates from official extended-range outlooks likely to shift positioning as the month progresses.