Hong Kong Observatory forecasts near-normal rainfall for August–October 2026, with normal-to-above-normal temperatures, aligning with climatological averages of roughly 400–500 mm for the month driven by the southwest monsoon and frequent tropical cyclone influences. Early August 2026 has seen limited heavy rain so far, following an exceptionally wet July that totaled 790 mm. Trader odds remain closely split across bins because August totals hinge on unpredictable typhoon tracks, intensity, and landfall timing—factors that can add or subtract hundreds of millimeters within days. Model consensus currently supports typical variability rather than extremes, leaving the 425–700 mm range competitive pending updated forecasts and any cyclone developments through the remainder of the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
550-600mm 30.3%
<425mm 29%
650-700mm 28%
700mm+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
30%
425-450mm
18%
450-475mm
16%
475-500mm
27%
500-525mm
14%
525-550mm
18%
550-600mm
30%
600-650mm
27%
650-700mm
28%
700mm+
33%
550-600mm 30.3%
<425mm 29%
650-700mm 28%
700mm+ 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$1,485 Vol.
30%
425-450mm
$231 Vol.
18%
450-475mm
$174 Vol.
16%
475-500mm
$123 Vol.
27%
500-525mm
$135 Vol.
14%
525-550mm
$191 Vol.
18%
550-600mm
$161 Vol.
30%
600-650mm
$147 Vol.
27%
650-700mm
$110 Vol.
28%
700mm+
$740 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts near-normal rainfall for August–October 2026, with normal-to-above-normal temperatures, aligning with climatological averages of roughly 400–500 mm for the month driven by the southwest monsoon and frequent tropical cyclone influences. Early August 2026 has seen limited heavy rain so far, following an exceptionally wet July that totaled 790 mm. Trader odds remain closely split across bins because August totals hinge on unpredictable typhoon tracks, intensity, and landfall timing—factors that can add or subtract hundreds of millimeters within days. Model consensus currently supports typical variability rather than extremes, leaving the 425–700 mm range competitive pending updated forecasts and any cyclone developments through the remainder of the month.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$3,497End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts near-normal rainfall for August–October 2026, with normal-to-above-normal temperatures, aligning with climatological averages of roughly 400–500 mm for the month driven by the southwest monsoon and frequent tropical cyclone influences. Early August 2026 has seen limited heavy rain so far, following an exceptionally wet July that totaled 790 mm. Trader odds remain closely split across bins because August totals hinge on unpredictable typhoon tracks, intensity, and landfall timing—factors that can add or subtract hundreds of millimeters within days. Model consensus currently supports typical variability rather than extremes, leaving the 425–700 mm range competitive pending updated forecasts and any cyclone developments through the remainder of the month.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,497End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory forecasts near-normal rainfall for August–October 2026, with normal-to-above-normal temperatures, aligning with climatological averages of roughly 400–500 mm for the month driven by the southwest monsoon and frequent tropical cyclone influences. Early August 2026 has seen limited heavy rain so far, following an exceptionally wet July that totaled 790 mm. Trader odds remain closely split across bins because August totals hinge on unpredictable typhoon tracks, intensity, and landfall timing—factors that can add or subtract hundreds of millimeters within days. Model consensus currently supports typical variability rather than extremes, leaving the 425–700 mm range competitive pending updated forecasts and any cyclone developments through the remainder of the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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