**Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors a 27°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 7, with 52% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 29.5% and 26°C at 16.5%.** These probabilities align with the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of 27–32°C and broader model guidance showing typical summer overnight lows near 26–27°C under humid, mostly cloudy conditions with limited radiative cooling. Recent seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures overall, while short-term data show no major typhoon influence or unusual atmospheric patterns expected to drive the overnight low below 26°C or above 28°C. The tight clustering around 27–28°C reflects model agreement on modest wind and high humidity suppressing further cooling, with resolution hinging on the official Observatory minimum recorded that day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 7?
27°C 51%
28°C 34%
26°C 14%
29°C 4%
NEW
$21,033 Vol.
NEW
$21,033 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
14%
27°C
51%
28°C
34%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 51%
28°C 34%
26°C 14%
29°C 4%
NEW
$21,033 Vol.
NEW
$21,033 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
21°C or below
$501 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$561 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,448 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,467 Vol.
3%
26°C
$3,897 Vol.
14%
27°C
$3,020 Vol.
51%
28°C
$4,799 Vol.
34%
29°C
$2,737 Vol.
4%
30°C
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$737 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors a 27°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 7, with 52% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 29.5% and 26°C at 16.5%.** These probabilities align with the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of 27–32°C and broader model guidance showing typical summer overnight lows near 26–27°C under humid, mostly cloudy conditions with limited radiative cooling. Recent seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures overall, while short-term data show no major typhoon influence or unusual atmospheric patterns expected to drive the overnight low below 26°C or above 28°C. The tight clustering around 27–28°C reflects model agreement on modest wind and high humidity suppressing further cooling, with resolution hinging on the official Observatory minimum recorded that day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21,033End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors a 27°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 7, with 52% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 29.5% and 26°C at 16.5%.** These probabilities align with the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of 27–32°C and broader model guidance showing typical summer overnight lows near 26–27°C under humid, mostly cloudy conditions with limited radiative cooling. Recent seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures overall, while short-term data show no major typhoon influence or unusual atmospheric patterns expected to drive the overnight low below 26°C or above 28°C. The tight clustering around 27–28°C reflects model agreement on modest wind and high humidity suppressing further cooling, with resolution hinging on the official Observatory minimum recorded that day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,033End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Polymarket heavily favors a 27°C minimum for Hong Kong on August 7, with 52% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 29.5% and 26°C at 16.5%.** These probabilities align with the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of 27–32°C and broader model guidance showing typical summer overnight lows near 26–27°C under humid, mostly cloudy conditions with limited radiative cooling. Recent seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal August temperatures overall, while short-term data show no major typhoon influence or unusual atmospheric patterns expected to drive the overnight low below 26°C or above 28°C. The tight clustering around 27–28°C reflects model agreement on modest wind and high humidity suppressing further cooling, with resolution hinging on the official Observatory minimum recorded that day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions