One Night Only’s sub-$6 million opening weekend has become the overwhelming market favorite at 97.5% implied probability after its first-day gross came in at just $2.81 million from roughly 3,000 theaters. The Universal romantic comedy, starring Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro, entered a crowded August frame dominated by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s second-weekend hold and faced muted pre-release tracking, modest critical buzz, and a premise that failed to generate broad awareness. Historical patterns for similarly positioned mid-budget comedies with soft Friday starts reinforce the likelihood of a finish well below $6 million. An upset into the $6–8 million range would require an unusually strong Saturday–Sunday multiplier driven by word-of-mouth or favorable reviews that have yet to materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office
"One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office
<6m 98.6%
6-7m 1.4%
7-8m <1%
8-9m <1%
$25,242 Vol.
$25,242 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<6m
99%
6-7m
1%
7-8m
1%
8-9m
<1%
9m+
<1%
<6m 98.6%
6-7m 1.4%
7-8m <1%
8-9m <1%
$25,242 Vol.
$25,242 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<6m
$11,375 Vol.
99%
6-7m
$1,482 Vol.
1%
7-8m
$1,430 Vol.
1%
8-9m
$3,669 Vol.
<1%
9m+
$7,286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.One Night Only’s sub-$6 million opening weekend has become the overwhelming market favorite at 97.5% implied probability after its first-day gross came in at just $2.81 million from roughly 3,000 theaters. The Universal romantic comedy, starring Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro, entered a crowded August frame dominated by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s second-weekend hold and faced muted pre-release tracking, modest critical buzz, and a premise that failed to generate broad awareness. Historical patterns for similarly positioned mid-budget comedies with soft Friday starts reinforce the likelihood of a finish well below $6 million. An upset into the $6–8 million range would require an unusually strong Saturday–Sunday multiplier driven by word-of-mouth or favorable reviews that have yet to materialize.
This market will resolve according to how much "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$25,242End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.One Night Only’s sub-$6 million opening weekend has become the overwhelming market favorite at 97.5% implied probability after its first-day gross came in at just $2.81 million from roughly 3,000 theaters. The Universal romantic comedy, starring Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro, entered a crowded August frame dominated by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s second-weekend hold and faced muted pre-release tracking, modest critical buzz, and a premise that failed to generate broad awareness. Historical patterns for similarly positioned mid-budget comedies with soft Friday starts reinforce the likelihood of a finish well below $6 million. An upset into the $6–8 million range would require an unusually strong Saturday–Sunday multiplier driven by word-of-mouth or favorable reviews that have yet to materialize.
This market will resolve according to how much "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$25,242End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...One Night Only’s sub-$6 million opening weekend has become the overwhelming market favorite at 97.5% implied probability after its first-day gross came in at just $2.81 million from roughly 3,000 theaters. The Universal romantic comedy, starring Callum Turner and Monica Barbaro, entered a crowded August frame dominated by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s second-weekend hold and faced muted pre-release tracking, modest critical buzz, and a premise that failed to generate broad awareness. Historical patterns for similarly positioned mid-budget comedies with soft Friday starts reinforce the likelihood of a finish well below $6 million. An upset into the $6–8 million range would require an unusually strong Saturday–Sunday multiplier driven by word-of-mouth or favorable reviews that have yet to materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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