Record $360 million domestic opening weekend for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which shattered Avengers: Endgame’s benchmark, combined with a record $42 million Tuesday gross, anchors trader expectations for a strong sophomore frame. Early holdover data and franchise momentum suggest limited drop-off despite the massive debut, pushing the 160-170 million range into a narrow lead over 140-150 million. With no major competing releases this frame and sustained audience demand evident in first-week tracking, the closely matched top outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact percentage decline versus comparable superhero holdovers. Upcoming daily grosses through Friday will clarify whether word-of-mouth sustains the higher band or accelerates the drop toward lower tiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
160-170m 48%
140-150m 41%
150-160m 38%
170-180m 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
27%
130-140m
34%
140-150m
41%
150-160m
38%
160-170m
48%
170-180m
37%
180m+
28%
160-170m 48%
140-150m 41%
150-160m 38%
170-180m 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
<130m
$16 Vol.
27%
130-140m
$16 Vol.
34%
140-150m
$16 Vol.
41%
150-160m
$41 Vol.
38%
160-170m
$41 Vol.
48%
170-180m
$41 Vol.
37%
180m+
$16 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record $360 million domestic opening weekend for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which shattered Avengers: Endgame’s benchmark, combined with a record $42 million Tuesday gross, anchors trader expectations for a strong sophomore frame. Early holdover data and franchise momentum suggest limited drop-off despite the massive debut, pushing the 160-170 million range into a narrow lead over 140-150 million. With no major competing releases this frame and sustained audience demand evident in first-week tracking, the closely matched top outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact percentage decline versus comparable superhero holdovers. Upcoming daily grosses through Friday will clarify whether word-of-mouth sustains the higher band or accelerates the drop toward lower tiers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Record $360 million domestic opening weekend for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which shattered Avengers: Endgame’s benchmark, combined with a record $42 million Tuesday gross, anchors trader expectations for a strong sophomore frame. Early holdover data and franchise momentum suggest limited drop-off despite the massive debut, pushing the 160-170 million range into a narrow lead over 140-150 million. With no major competing releases this frame and sustained audience demand evident in first-week tracking, the closely matched top outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact percentage decline versus comparable superhero holdovers. Upcoming daily grosses through Friday will clarify whether word-of-mouth sustains the higher band or accelerates the drop toward lower tiers.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$184End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Record $360 million domestic opening weekend for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” which shattered Avengers: Endgame’s benchmark, combined with a record $42 million Tuesday gross, anchors trader expectations for a strong sophomore frame. Early holdover data and franchise momentum suggest limited drop-off despite the massive debut, pushing the 160-170 million range into a narrow lead over 140-150 million. With no major competing releases this frame and sustained audience demand evident in first-week tracking, the closely matched top outcomes reflect uncertainty around exact percentage decline versus comparable superhero holdovers. Upcoming daily grosses through Friday will clarify whether word-of-mouth sustains the higher band or accelerates the drop toward lower tiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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