Republican incumbent Ann Wagner maintains a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+6 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its target list, reflecting interest in suburban St. Louis voters, yet early hypothetical polling shows Wagner ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders. With both parties’ August 4 primaries still ahead and no significant shifts in fundraising or voter sentiment reported, traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages and historical margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,148 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$2,238 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Ann Wagner maintains a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+6 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its target list, reflecting interest in suburban St. Louis voters, yet early hypothetical polling shows Wagner ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders. With both parties’ August 4 primaries still ahead and no significant shifts in fundraising or voter sentiment reported, traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages and historical margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$5,386End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Ann Wagner maintains a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+6 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its target list, reflecting interest in suburban St. Louis voters, yet early hypothetical polling shows Wagner ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders. With both parties’ August 4 primaries still ahead and no significant shifts in fundraising or voter sentiment reported, traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages and historical margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,386End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Ann Wagner maintains a strong position in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+6 partisan voting index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its target list, reflecting interest in suburban St. Louis voters, yet early hypothetical polling shows Wagner ahead of leading Democratic primary contenders. With both parties’ August 4 primaries still ahead and no significant shifts in fundraising or voter sentiment reported, traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages and historical margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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