Chris Stigall secured the Republican nomination for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with 44% of the vote, backed by retiring incumbent Sam Graves’ endorsement and strong name recognition from his conservative radio background. The open seat in a district that delivered over 70% for the GOP in 2024 positions Stigall as the clear frontrunner against Democratic nominee Josh Smead, who won his primary with 48%. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Stigall reflects the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure in rural northwest Missouri, and Stigall’s fundraising edge. A shift would require an unusually large national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomalies that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-06 House Election Winner
MO-06 House Election Winner
$43,095 Vol.
$43,095 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Stigall (R)
95%
Josh Smead (D)
6%
$43,095 Vol.
$43,095 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Stigall (R)
$27,455 Vol.
95%
Josh Smead (D)
$15,640 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Stigall secured the Republican nomination for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with 44% of the vote, backed by retiring incumbent Sam Graves’ endorsement and strong name recognition from his conservative radio background. The open seat in a district that delivered over 70% for the GOP in 2024 positions Stigall as the clear frontrunner against Democratic nominee Josh Smead, who won his primary with 48%. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Stigall reflects the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure in rural northwest Missouri, and Stigall’s fundraising edge. A shift would require an unusually large national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomalies that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$43,095End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Stigall secured the Republican nomination for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with 44% of the vote, backed by retiring incumbent Sam Graves’ endorsement and strong name recognition from his conservative radio background. The open seat in a district that delivered over 70% for the GOP in 2024 positions Stigall as the clear frontrunner against Democratic nominee Josh Smead, who won his primary with 48%. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Stigall reflects the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure in rural northwest Missouri, and Stigall’s fundraising edge. A shift would require an unusually large national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomalies that have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,095End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Chris Stigall secured the Republican nomination for Missouri’s 6th Congressional District in the August 4 primary with 44% of the vote, backed by retiring incumbent Sam Graves’ endorsement and strong name recognition from his conservative radio background. The open seat in a district that delivered over 70% for the GOP in 2024 positions Stigall as the clear frontrunner against Democratic nominee Josh Smead, who won his primary with 48%. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Stigall reflects the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure in rural northwest Missouri, and Stigall’s fundraising edge. A shift would require an unusually large national Democratic surge, a major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomalies that have not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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