Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly winds associated with a developing weather system are moderating temperatures across Tokyo, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight lows near 20–22°C. Official forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show minimums stabilizing around 21°C on September 6 amid high humidity and widespread precipitation, consistent with the recent cooling trend observed since early September. This atmospheric setup aligns with trader consensus favoring 21°C at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C, while lower or higher extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of overnight hours represent the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
21°C 49%
22°C 29%
20°C 21%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
21%
21°C
49%
22°C
29%
23°C
3%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 49%
22°C 29%
20°C 21%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
$45 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$30 Vol.
1%
20°C
$700 Vol.
21%
21°C
$205 Vol.
49%
22°C
$555 Vol.
29%
23°C
$62 Vol.
3%
24°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$45 Vol.
1%
26°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly winds associated with a developing weather system are moderating temperatures across Tokyo, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight lows near 20–22°C. Official forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show minimums stabilizing around 21°C on September 6 amid high humidity and widespread precipitation, consistent with the recent cooling trend observed since early September. This atmospheric setup aligns with trader consensus favoring 21°C at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C, while lower or higher extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of overnight hours represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,796End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly winds associated with a developing weather system are moderating temperatures across Tokyo, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight lows near 20–22°C. Official forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show minimums stabilizing around 21°C on September 6 amid high humidity and widespread precipitation, consistent with the recent cooling trend observed since early September. This atmospheric setup aligns with trader consensus favoring 21°C at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C, while lower or higher extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of overnight hours represent the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,796End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and northerly winds associated with a developing weather system are moderating temperatures across Tokyo, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight lows near 20–22°C. Official forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show minimums stabilizing around 21°C on September 6 amid high humidity and widespread precipitation, consistent with the recent cooling trend observed since early September. This atmospheric setup aligns with trader consensus favoring 21°C at 49.5% implied probability, followed by 22°C, while lower or higher extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of overnight hours represent the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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