Recent forecasts from National Weather Service and private models indicate a minimum temperature near 70–72°F overnight in Central Park and surrounding NYC stations, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light northerly flow, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This setup follows elevated daytime highs near 80°F and aligns with the market’s dominant 70–71°F outcome at 71% implied probability. Seasonal norms for early September average closer to 65°F, but the current pattern lacks any reinforcing cold advection or clear, calm conditions that would allow deeper overnight drops. Updated model runs overnight and official NWS observations will resolve the market, though consensus supports only modest cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
70-71°F 88%
64-65°F 7.9%
68-69°F 8%
66-67°F 3.8%
$9,215 Vol.
$9,215 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
71%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 88%
64-65°F 7.9%
68-69°F 8%
66-67°F 3.8%
$9,215 Vol.
$9,215 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
$338 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$484 Vol.
8%
66-67°F
$623 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$2,103 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$2,763 Vol.
71%
72-73°F
$842 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$690 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$696 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$301 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$175 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from National Weather Service and private models indicate a minimum temperature near 70–72°F overnight in Central Park and surrounding NYC stations, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light northerly flow, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This setup follows elevated daytime highs near 80°F and aligns with the market’s dominant 70–71°F outcome at 71% implied probability. Seasonal norms for early September average closer to 65°F, but the current pattern lacks any reinforcing cold advection or clear, calm conditions that would allow deeper overnight drops. Updated model runs overnight and official NWS observations will resolve the market, though consensus supports only modest cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$9,215End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from National Weather Service and private models indicate a minimum temperature near 70–72°F overnight in Central Park and surrounding NYC stations, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light northerly flow, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This setup follows elevated daytime highs near 80°F and aligns with the market’s dominant 70–71°F outcome at 71% implied probability. Seasonal norms for early September average closer to 65°F, but the current pattern lacks any reinforcing cold advection or clear, calm conditions that would allow deeper overnight drops. Updated model runs overnight and official NWS observations will resolve the market, though consensus supports only modest cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,215End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from National Weather Service and private models indicate a minimum temperature near 70–72°F overnight in Central Park and surrounding NYC stations, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light northerly flow, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This setup follows elevated daytime highs near 80°F and aligns with the market’s dominant 70–71°F outcome at 71% implied probability. Seasonal norms for early September average closer to 65°F, but the current pattern lacks any reinforcing cold advection or clear, calm conditions that would allow deeper overnight drops. Updated model runs overnight and official NWS observations will resolve the market, though consensus supports only modest cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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