Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and GFS data show overnight lows in New York City holding in the 70-71°F range on September 13, 2026, driven by persistent warm, humid air masses, widespread cloud cover, and light variable winds that limit radiational cooling. Recent observations confirm daytime highs near 78-79°F with ongoing showers maintaining elevated minimum temperatures well above the historical average low of about 63°F. This supports the market's dominant 95.5% implied probability for 70-71°F as the daily low. Clearer skies or stronger northwest winds developing late could allow a dip toward 68-69°F, though model consensus and current conditions make that outcome unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 13?
70-71°F 96%
68-69°F 5%
66-67°F 1.8%
64-65°F <1%
$11,378 Vol.
$11,378 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
96%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 96%
68-69°F 5%
66-67°F 1.8%
64-65°F <1%
$11,378 Vol.
$11,378 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
63°F or below
$1,830 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$721 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$508 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$1,189 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$1,301 Vol.
96%
72-73°F
$3,473 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,433 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$193 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$506 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$112 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and GFS data show overnight lows in New York City holding in the 70-71°F range on September 13, 2026, driven by persistent warm, humid air masses, widespread cloud cover, and light variable winds that limit radiational cooling. Recent observations confirm daytime highs near 78-79°F with ongoing showers maintaining elevated minimum temperatures well above the historical average low of about 63°F. This supports the market's dominant 95.5% implied probability for 70-71°F as the daily low. Clearer skies or stronger northwest winds developing late could allow a dip toward 68-69°F, though model consensus and current conditions make that outcome unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$11,378End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and GFS data show overnight lows in New York City holding in the 70-71°F range on September 13, 2026, driven by persistent warm, humid air masses, widespread cloud cover, and light variable winds that limit radiational cooling. Recent observations confirm daytime highs near 78-79°F with ongoing showers maintaining elevated minimum temperatures well above the historical average low of about 63°F. This supports the market's dominant 95.5% implied probability for 70-71°F as the daily low. Clearer skies or stronger northwest winds developing late could allow a dip toward 68-69°F, though model consensus and current conditions make that outcome unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,378End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service and GFS data show overnight lows in New York City holding in the 70-71°F range on September 13, 2026, driven by persistent warm, humid air masses, widespread cloud cover, and light variable winds that limit radiational cooling. Recent observations confirm daytime highs near 78-79°F with ongoing showers maintaining elevated minimum temperatures well above the historical average low of about 63°F. This supports the market's dominant 95.5% implied probability for 70-71°F as the daily low. Clearer skies or stronger northwest winds developing late could allow a dip toward 68-69°F, though model consensus and current conditions make that outcome unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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