High uncertainty in tropical weather models for Manila on September 21 drives closely matched market-implied odds near 44.5% for both the 21°C-or-below and 31°C-or-higher outcomes. Variable southwest monsoon flows, intermittent cloud cover, and potential localized convection can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures, while sea-surface temperatures and urban heat effects provide a warm baseline. PAGASA and global ensemble forecasts show limited consensus at this lead time, with historical September lows typically clustering near 24–26°C but capable of wider swings during active monsoon or passing disturbances. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely shift trader positioning as resolution criteria tighten.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
31°C or higher 89%
21°C or below 88%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
88%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
40%
25°C
21%
26°C
30%
27°C
23%
28°C
40%
29°C
40%
30°C
40%
31°C or higher
89%
31°C or higher 89%
21°C or below 88%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
30%
27°C
$5 Vol.
23%
28°C
$0 Vol.
40%
29°C
$0 Vol.
40%
30°C
$0 Vol.
40%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in tropical weather models for Manila on September 21 drives closely matched market-implied odds near 44.5% for both the 21°C-or-below and 31°C-or-higher outcomes. Variable southwest monsoon flows, intermittent cloud cover, and potential localized convection can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures, while sea-surface temperatures and urban heat effects provide a warm baseline. PAGASA and global ensemble forecasts show limited consensus at this lead time, with historical September lows typically clustering near 24–26°C but capable of wider swings during active monsoon or passing disturbances. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely shift trader positioning as resolution criteria tighten.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in tropical weather models for Manila on September 21 drives closely matched market-implied odds near 44.5% for both the 21°C-or-below and 31°C-or-higher outcomes. Variable southwest monsoon flows, intermittent cloud cover, and potential localized convection can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures, while sea-surface temperatures and urban heat effects provide a warm baseline. PAGASA and global ensemble forecasts show limited consensus at this lead time, with historical September lows typically clustering near 24–26°C but capable of wider swings during active monsoon or passing disturbances. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely shift trader positioning as resolution criteria tighten.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...High uncertainty in tropical weather models for Manila on September 21 drives closely matched market-implied odds near 44.5% for both the 21°C-or-below and 31°C-or-higher outcomes. Variable southwest monsoon flows, intermittent cloud cover, and potential localized convection can sharply alter nighttime radiative cooling and minimum temperatures, while sea-surface temperatures and urban heat effects provide a warm baseline. PAGASA and global ensemble forecasts show limited consensus at this lead time, with historical September lows typically clustering near 24–26°C but capable of wider swings during active monsoon or passing disturbances. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely shift trader positioning as resolution criteria tighten.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions