Current IMD forecasts and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 27°C for Lucknow on September 21 under mainly clear skies, with highs reaching 35–36°C. This equilibrium in trader sentiment between sub-23°C and 32°C+ outcomes stems from uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates. Clear, dry conditions after monsoon withdrawal enhance heat loss to space, potentially allowing minima to dip toward 25–26°C, while any residual humidity, light winds, or scattered clouds could limit cooling and keep readings above 28°C. Historical September baselines show typical lows of 24–28°C, but short-term model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the observed 44–50% implied probabilities across bins. Updated IMD guidance or overnight observations ahead of resolution will likely tighten consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Lucknow on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on September 21?
22°C or below 100%
32°C or higher 100%
23°C 89%
24°C 89%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
100%
23°C
89%
24°C
89%
25°C
89%
26°C
89%
27°C
89%
28°C
89%
29°C
89%
30°C
89%
31°C
89%
32°C or higher
100%
22°C or below 100%
32°C or higher 100%
23°C 89%
24°C 89%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
23°C
$0 Vol.
89%
24°C
$0 Vol.
89%
25°C
$0 Vol.
89%
26°C
$0 Vol.
89%
27°C
$0 Vol.
89%
28°C
$0 Vol.
89%
29°C
$0 Vol.
89%
30°C
$0 Vol.
89%
31°C
$0 Vol.
89%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current IMD forecasts and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 27°C for Lucknow on September 21 under mainly clear skies, with highs reaching 35–36°C. This equilibrium in trader sentiment between sub-23°C and 32°C+ outcomes stems from uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates. Clear, dry conditions after monsoon withdrawal enhance heat loss to space, potentially allowing minima to dip toward 25–26°C, while any residual humidity, light winds, or scattered clouds could limit cooling and keep readings above 28°C. Historical September baselines show typical lows of 24–28°C, but short-term model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the observed 44–50% implied probabilities across bins. Updated IMD guidance or overnight observations ahead of resolution will likely tighten consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current IMD forecasts and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 27°C for Lucknow on September 21 under mainly clear skies, with highs reaching 35–36°C. This equilibrium in trader sentiment between sub-23°C and 32°C+ outcomes stems from uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates. Clear, dry conditions after monsoon withdrawal enhance heat loss to space, potentially allowing minima to dip toward 25–26°C, while any residual humidity, light winds, or scattered clouds could limit cooling and keep readings above 28°C. Historical September baselines show typical lows of 24–28°C, but short-term model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the observed 44–50% implied probabilities across bins. Updated IMD guidance or overnight observations ahead of resolution will likely tighten consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current IMD forecasts and supporting models project a minimum temperature near 27°C for Lucknow on September 21 under mainly clear skies, with highs reaching 35–36°C. This equilibrium in trader sentiment between sub-23°C and 32°C+ outcomes stems from uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates. Clear, dry conditions after monsoon withdrawal enhance heat loss to space, potentially allowing minima to dip toward 25–26°C, while any residual humidity, light winds, or scattered clouds could limit cooling and keep readings above 28°C. Historical September baselines show typical lows of 24–28°C, but short-term model spreads in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns create the observed 44–50% implied probabilities across bins. Updated IMD guidance or overnight observations ahead of resolution will likely tighten consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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