**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 26°C on September 7, 2026, with the market’s near-even split between 26°C (34%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cooling.** A broad cloud band over southern China is expected to bring generally cloudy conditions and isolated showers on the 7th, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minima in the mid-20s. Light winds (force 2 or less) and high humidity (65–95%) further moderate temperature drops, while sea-surface temperatures near 26°C anchor coastal readings. Recent days have featured similar patterns, with observed lows around 24–26°C amid scattered thunderstorms. Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in cloud timing and shower coverage; clearer breaks could allow brief cooling toward 25°C or below, while persistent cloud and showers favor 27°C. The northeast monsoon is not yet influencing the region, keeping conditions typical for early September rather than cooler. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–31°C range most heavily, with the 20.5% on 22°C or below capturing any downside surprise from unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 7?
22°C or below 37%
26°C 34%
27°C 32%
24°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
37%
23°C
22%
24°C
24%
25°C
17%
26°C
34%
27°C
32%
28°C
13%
29°C
19%
30°C
19%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
16%
22°C or below 37%
26°C 34%
27°C 32%
24°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C
$7 Vol.
17%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$0 Vol.
32%
28°C
$20 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 26°C on September 7, 2026, with the market’s near-even split between 26°C (34%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cooling.**
A broad cloud band over southern China is expected to bring generally cloudy conditions and isolated showers on the 7th, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minima in the mid-20s. Light winds (force 2 or less) and high humidity (65–95%) further moderate temperature drops, while sea-surface temperatures near 26°C anchor coastal readings. Recent days have featured similar patterns, with observed lows around 24–26°C amid scattered thunderstorms.
Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in cloud timing and shower coverage; clearer breaks could allow brief cooling toward 25°C or below, while persistent cloud and showers favor 27°C. The northeast monsoon is not yet influencing the region, keeping conditions typical for early September rather than cooler. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–31°C range most heavily, with the 20.5% on 22°C or below capturing any downside surprise from unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 26°C on September 7, 2026, with the market’s near-even split between 26°C (34%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cooling.**
A broad cloud band over southern China is expected to bring generally cloudy conditions and isolated showers on the 7th, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minima in the mid-20s. Light winds (force 2 or less) and high humidity (65–95%) further moderate temperature drops, while sea-surface temperatures near 26°C anchor coastal readings. Recent days have featured similar patterns, with observed lows around 24–26°C amid scattered thunderstorms.
Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in cloud timing and shower coverage; clearer breaks could allow brief cooling toward 25°C or below, while persistent cloud and showers favor 27°C. The northeast monsoon is not yet influencing the region, keeping conditions typical for early September rather than cooler. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–31°C range most heavily, with the 20.5% on 22°C or below capturing any downside surprise from unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 26°C on September 7, 2026, with the market’s near-even split between 26°C (34%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cooling.** A broad cloud band over southern China is expected to bring generally cloudy conditions and isolated showers on the 7th, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minima in the mid-20s. Light winds (force 2 or less) and high humidity (65–95%) further moderate temperature drops, while sea-surface temperatures near 26°C anchor coastal readings. Recent days have featured similar patterns, with observed lows around 24–26°C amid scattered thunderstorms. Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in cloud timing and shower coverage; clearer breaks could allow brief cooling toward 25°C or below, while persistent cloud and showers favor 27°C. The northeast monsoon is not yet influencing the region, keeping conditions typical for early September rather than cooler. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–31°C range most heavily, with the 20.5% on 22°C or below capturing any downside surprise from unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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