Trader consensus around 20–22°C for Warsaw’s daily maximum on September 20 reflects the latest ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services, which show a transitional high-pressure ridge over central Europe yielding partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Seasonal baseline temperatures for mid-September in the region sit near 18–20°C, so modest departures hinge on boundary-layer mixing, daytime insolation under variable cloud cover, and any weak frontal passage. Ensemble spread of roughly 1–2°C across runs creates the observed tight probability distribution, with 21°C and 22°C edging ahead due to recent model consensus shifts. Fresh high-resolution updates expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 20?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 20?
21°C 40%
22°C 31%
20°C 23%
24°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C
12%
19°C
11%
20°C
23%
21°C
40%
22°C
31%
23°C
12%
24°C
18%
25°C
5%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 40%
22°C 31%
20°C 23%
24°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
12%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$0 Vol.
23%
21°C
$6 Vol.
40%
22°C
$158 Vol.
31%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 20–22°C for Warsaw’s daily maximum on September 20 reflects the latest ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services, which show a transitional high-pressure ridge over central Europe yielding partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Seasonal baseline temperatures for mid-September in the region sit near 18–20°C, so modest departures hinge on boundary-layer mixing, daytime insolation under variable cloud cover, and any weak frontal passage. Ensemble spread of roughly 1–2°C across runs creates the observed tight probability distribution, with 21°C and 22°C edging ahead due to recent model consensus shifts. Fresh high-resolution updates expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$164End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 20–22°C for Warsaw’s daily maximum on September 20 reflects the latest ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services, which show a transitional high-pressure ridge over central Europe yielding partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Seasonal baseline temperatures for mid-September in the region sit near 18–20°C, so modest departures hinge on boundary-layer mixing, daytime insolation under variable cloud cover, and any weak frontal passage. Ensemble spread of roughly 1–2°C across runs creates the observed tight probability distribution, with 21°C and 22°C edging ahead due to recent model consensus shifts. Fresh high-resolution updates expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$164End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 20–22°C for Warsaw’s daily maximum on September 20 reflects the latest ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services, which show a transitional high-pressure ridge over central Europe yielding partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Seasonal baseline temperatures for mid-September in the region sit near 18–20°C, so modest departures hinge on boundary-layer mixing, daytime insolation under variable cloud cover, and any weak frontal passage. Ensemble spread of roughly 1–2°C across runs creates the observed tight probability distribution, with 21°C and 22°C edging ahead due to recent model consensus shifts. Fresh high-resolution updates expected within the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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