Current forecast models indicate a peak daytime temperature in Warsaw of 21–22°C on September 18 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly winds, supporting the market’s strong weighting toward these outcomes. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have suppressed stronger warming or cooling, keeping values near late-September climatological norms with little model spread. Recent runs show consistent afternoon maxima near 21°C, with minor upward revisions in some guidance pushing isolated 23°C scenarios. Traders appear to discount higher or lower extremes given the absence of dynamic weather features, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal and microscale variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 18?
22°C 51%
21°C 36%
23°C 12%
20°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
36%
22°C
51%
23°C
12%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
1%
22°C 51%
21°C 36%
23°C 12%
20°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$538 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$363 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$352 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,698 Vol.
36%
22°C
$2,685 Vol.
51%
23°C
$1,471 Vol.
12%
24°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$205 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a peak daytime temperature in Warsaw of 21–22°C on September 18 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly winds, supporting the market’s strong weighting toward these outcomes. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have suppressed stronger warming or cooling, keeping values near late-September climatological norms with little model spread. Recent runs show consistent afternoon maxima near 21°C, with minor upward revisions in some guidance pushing isolated 23°C scenarios. Traders appear to discount higher or lower extremes given the absence of dynamic weather features, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal and microscale variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,138End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a peak daytime temperature in Warsaw of 21–22°C on September 18 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly winds, supporting the market’s strong weighting toward these outcomes. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have suppressed stronger warming or cooling, keeping values near late-September climatological norms with little model spread. Recent runs show consistent afternoon maxima near 21°C, with minor upward revisions in some guidance pushing isolated 23°C scenarios. Traders appear to discount higher or lower extremes given the absence of dynamic weather features, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal and microscale variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,138End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models indicate a peak daytime temperature in Warsaw of 21–22°C on September 18 under partly cloudy skies and moderate southwesterly winds, supporting the market’s strong weighting toward these outcomes. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection have suppressed stronger warming or cooling, keeping values near late-September climatological norms with little model spread. Recent runs show consistent afternoon maxima near 21°C, with minor upward revisions in some guidance pushing isolated 23°C scenarios. Traders appear to discount higher or lower extremes given the absence of dynamic weather features, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal and microscale variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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