**Forecast models and observations point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17, 2026, centered around 18–20 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 19 °C (53.5 %), 18 °C (33 %), and 20 °C (12.5 %).** Widespread cloud cover, light showers or drizzle, and moderate westerly winds are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with official guidance from sources such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and global models (GFS, ECMWF). September climatology for Warsaw shows typical highs near 16–19 °C; today’s pattern features higher humidity and reduced solar insolation compared with the clearer, warmer conditions on September 16 (when readings reached 24–25 °C). Recent model runs have converged on this narrow range, with only minor differences in timing of any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 20 °C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of rain (often 70–98 % in forecasts) and persistent stratiform clouds against the slim chance of partial afternoon sun, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast consensus. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine the exact peak if skies briefly clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 17?
19°C 54%
18°C 35%
20°C 13%
21°C <1%
NEW
$22,043 Vol.
NEW
$22,043 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
35%
19°C
54%
20°C
13%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 54%
18°C 35%
20°C 13%
21°C <1%
NEW
$22,043 Vol.
NEW
$22,043 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$183 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$143 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$307 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$11,651 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,591 Vol.
35%
19°C
$3,159 Vol.
54%
20°C
$1,700 Vol.
13%
21°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$435 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observations point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17, 2026, centered around 18–20 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 19 °C (53.5 %), 18 °C (33 %), and 20 °C (12.5 %).** Widespread cloud cover, light showers or drizzle, and moderate westerly winds are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with official guidance from sources such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and global models (GFS, ECMWF).
September climatology for Warsaw shows typical highs near 16–19 °C; today’s pattern features higher humidity and reduced solar insolation compared with the clearer, warmer conditions on September 16 (when readings reached 24–25 °C). Recent model runs have converged on this narrow range, with only minor differences in timing of any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 20 °C.
Traders appear to weigh the high probability of rain (often 70–98 % in forecasts) and persistent stratiform clouds against the slim chance of partial afternoon sun, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast consensus. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine the exact peak if skies briefly clear.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$22,043End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observations point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17, 2026, centered around 18–20 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 19 °C (53.5 %), 18 °C (33 %), and 20 °C (12.5 %).** Widespread cloud cover, light showers or drizzle, and moderate westerly winds are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with official guidance from sources such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and global models (GFS, ECMWF).
September climatology for Warsaw shows typical highs near 16–19 °C; today’s pattern features higher humidity and reduced solar insolation compared with the clearer, warmer conditions on September 16 (when readings reached 24–25 °C). Recent model runs have converged on this narrow range, with only minor differences in timing of any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 20 °C.
Traders appear to weigh the high probability of rain (often 70–98 % in forecasts) and persistent stratiform clouds against the slim chance of partial afternoon sun, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast consensus. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine the exact peak if skies briefly clear.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,043End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observations point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 17, 2026, centered around 18–20 °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 19 °C (53.5 %), 18 °C (33 %), and 20 °C (12.5 %).** Widespread cloud cover, light showers or drizzle, and moderate westerly winds are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with official guidance from sources such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and global models (GFS, ECMWF). September climatology for Warsaw shows typical highs near 16–19 °C; today’s pattern features higher humidity and reduced solar insolation compared with the clearer, warmer conditions on September 16 (when readings reached 24–25 °C). Recent model runs have converged on this narrow range, with only minor differences in timing of any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 20 °C. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of rain (often 70–98 % in forecasts) and persistent stratiform clouds against the slim chance of partial afternoon sun, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast consensus. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine the exact peak if skies briefly clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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