Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show New York City on track for a daily maximum near 87°F, with ensemble guidance placing the highest temperature most likely in the 86–89°F range amid modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light southerly flow off the Atlantic, and the urban heat island effect. Historical August climatology for Central Park places the average high around 84–86°F, providing context for why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to the two leading bins. Model spread remains the key variable that could shift the final observed reading by 1–2°F before evening, with any late-day clearing or stronger onshore breeze the primary factors that would favor the lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 12?
86-87°F 49%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 15%
82-83°F <1%
NEW
$27,703 Vol.
NEW
$27,703 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
49%
88-89°F
37%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 49%
88-89°F 37%
84-85°F 15%
82-83°F <1%
NEW
$27,703 Vol.
NEW
$27,703 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$3,705 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$3,771 Vol.
15%
86-87°F
$6,245 Vol.
49%
88-89°F
$4,116 Vol.
37%
90-91°F
$2,930 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$2,832 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$760 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$543 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$381 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show New York City on track for a daily maximum near 87°F, with ensemble guidance placing the highest temperature most likely in the 86–89°F range amid modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light southerly flow off the Atlantic, and the urban heat island effect. Historical August climatology for Central Park places the average high around 84–86°F, providing context for why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to the two leading bins. Model spread remains the key variable that could shift the final observed reading by 1–2°F before evening, with any late-day clearing or stronger onshore breeze the primary factors that would favor the lower outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$27,703End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show New York City on track for a daily maximum near 87°F, with ensemble guidance placing the highest temperature most likely in the 86–89°F range amid modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light southerly flow off the Atlantic, and the urban heat island effect. Historical August climatology for Central Park places the average high around 84–86°F, providing context for why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to the two leading bins. Model spread remains the key variable that could shift the final observed reading by 1–2°F before evening, with any late-day clearing or stronger onshore breeze the primary factors that would favor the lower outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,703End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models show New York City on track for a daily maximum near 87°F, with ensemble guidance placing the highest temperature most likely in the 86–89°F range amid modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light southerly flow off the Atlantic, and the urban heat island effect. Historical August climatology for Central Park places the average high around 84–86°F, providing context for why traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to the two leading bins. Model spread remains the key variable that could shift the final observed reading by 1–2°F before evening, with any late-day clearing or stronger onshore breeze the primary factors that would favor the lower outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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