Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from global ensembles, indicate maximum temperatures in Mexico City on August 15 will most likely reach 26–27°C amid the peak of the summer rainy season. Afternoon convection and scattered thunderstorms, driven by moist southerly flow and orographic lift from surrounding mountains, typically cap daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term August average of 24°C while preventing stronger warming. Updated short-range guidance shows minimal day-to-day variability through the forecast period, with only modest uncertainty tied to exact timing and coverage of precipitation. These conditions explain the market’s strong clustering around 26–27°C outcomes and the limited probability assigned to extremes outside that narrow range.