Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies points to a maximum of 29–31°C in Madrid on September 20 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly flow that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market’s concentration around 31°C, as models show modest warming relative to the long-term average high of 25.5°C for the date. September 2026 has already featured above-normal temperatures, with several days exceeding 30°C earlier in the month, reinforcing trader expectations for continued warmth. With resolution imminent, minor revisions in afternoon model runs or wind shifts represent the main variables that could nudge the observed peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 20?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 20?
31°C 72%
30°C 25%
32°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
15%
30°C
21%
31°C
59%
32°C
17%
33°C
8%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 72%
30°C 25%
32°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$146 Vol.
21%
31°C
$338 Vol.
59%
32°C
$49 Vol.
17%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$0 Vol.
5%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies points to a maximum of 29–31°C in Madrid on September 20 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly flow that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market’s concentration around 31°C, as models show modest warming relative to the long-term average high of 25.5°C for the date. September 2026 has already featured above-normal temperatures, with several days exceeding 30°C earlier in the month, reinforcing trader expectations for continued warmth. With resolution imminent, minor revisions in afternoon model runs or wind shifts represent the main variables that could nudge the observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$543End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies points to a maximum of 29–31°C in Madrid on September 20 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly flow that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market’s concentration around 31°C, as models show modest warming relative to the long-term average high of 25.5°C for the date. September 2026 has already featured above-normal temperatures, with several days exceeding 30°C earlier in the month, reinforcing trader expectations for continued warmth. With resolution imminent, minor revisions in afternoon model runs or wind shifts represent the main variables that could nudge the observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$543End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies points to a maximum of 29–31°C in Madrid on September 20 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly flow that limits cloud cover and allows strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market’s concentration around 31°C, as models show modest warming relative to the long-term average high of 25.5°C for the date. September 2026 has already featured above-normal temperatures, with several days exceeding 30°C earlier in the month, reinforcing trader expectations for continued warmth. With resolution imminent, minor revisions in afternoon model runs or wind shifts represent the main variables that could nudge the observed peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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