Latest numerical weather prediction models and AEMET guidance indicate clear to partly cloudy skies over Madrid on September 18 under a stable high-pressure regime, with light northeasterly flow limiting moisture and cloud cover. This setup supports efficient daytime heating on the meseta, positioning the maximum near 27–28 °C—values that align with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Ensemble consensus shows minimal spread, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and exact wind direction; historical September 18 averages hover around 26 °C, but recent dry, sunny conditions have pushed daily maxima 1–2 °C above normal. Final AEMET updates and the 00 UTC model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts that could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 54%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
25%
28°C
54%
29°C
17%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 54%
27°C 25%
29°C 17%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$103 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$280 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$374 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,569 Vol.
25%
28°C
$1,168 Vol.
54%
29°C
$1,674 Vol.
17%
30°C
$85 Vol.
1%
31°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models and AEMET guidance indicate clear to partly cloudy skies over Madrid on September 18 under a stable high-pressure regime, with light northeasterly flow limiting moisture and cloud cover. This setup supports efficient daytime heating on the meseta, positioning the maximum near 27–28 °C—values that align with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Ensemble consensus shows minimal spread, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and exact wind direction; historical September 18 averages hover around 26 °C, but recent dry, sunny conditions have pushed daily maxima 1–2 °C above normal. Final AEMET updates and the 00 UTC model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts that could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,870End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models and AEMET guidance indicate clear to partly cloudy skies over Madrid on September 18 under a stable high-pressure regime, with light northeasterly flow limiting moisture and cloud cover. This setup supports efficient daytime heating on the meseta, positioning the maximum near 27–28 °C—values that align with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Ensemble consensus shows minimal spread, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and exact wind direction; historical September 18 averages hover around 26 °C, but recent dry, sunny conditions have pushed daily maxima 1–2 °C above normal. Final AEMET updates and the 00 UTC model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts that could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,870End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models and AEMET guidance indicate clear to partly cloudy skies over Madrid on September 18 under a stable high-pressure regime, with light northeasterly flow limiting moisture and cloud cover. This setup supports efficient daytime heating on the meseta, positioning the maximum near 27–28 °C—values that align with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Ensemble consensus shows minimal spread, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and exact wind direction; historical September 18 averages hover around 26 °C, but recent dry, sunny conditions have pushed daily maxima 1–2 °C above normal. Final AEMET updates and the 00 UTC model runs tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts that could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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