Current forecasts from meteorological models project a Madrid high near 26°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with the long-term September average of 26.2°C. This consensus drives the 63.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C, with the 24.5% odds on 27°C reflecting minor model spread and potential for brief afternoon warming. Stable high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns limit upside potential, while historical records show September 17 maxima ranging widely from 13.6°C to 34.7°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
26°C 63%
27°C 25%
25°C 6%
28°C 4%
NEW
$32,002 Vol.
NEW
$32,002 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
63%
27°C
25%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 63%
27°C 25%
25°C 6%
28°C 4%
NEW
$32,002 Vol.
NEW
$32,002 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$863 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,440 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$568 Vol.
1%
24°C
$514 Vol.
1%
25°C
$4,498 Vol.
6%
26°C
$7,513 Vol.
63%
27°C
$6,118 Vol.
25%
28°C
$7,399 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,378 Vol.
1%
30°C
$369 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,342 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models project a Madrid high near 26°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with the long-term September average of 26.2°C. This consensus drives the 63.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C, with the 24.5% odds on 27°C reflecting minor model spread and potential for brief afternoon warming. Stable high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns limit upside potential, while historical records show September 17 maxima ranging widely from 13.6°C to 34.7°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$32,002End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models project a Madrid high near 26°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with the long-term September average of 26.2°C. This consensus drives the 63.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C, with the 24.5% odds on 27°C reflecting minor model spread and potential for brief afternoon warming. Stable high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns limit upside potential, while historical records show September 17 maxima ranging widely from 13.6°C to 34.7°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,002End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological models project a Madrid high near 26°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds and minimal precipitation risk, aligning with the long-term September average of 26.2°C. This consensus drives the 63.5% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C, with the 24.5% odds on 27°C reflecting minor model spread and potential for brief afternoon warming. Stable high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns limit upside potential, while historical records show September 17 maxima ranging widely from 13.6°C to 34.7°C. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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