Northeast winds off Lake Michigan and post-frontal cooling have moderated Chicago temperatures on September 5, 2026, after early-month highs reached the mid-90s. Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a daily maximum of 80-81°F at primary reporting stations such as O’Hare, consistent with the historical average high near 80°F for the date. Lake-effect moderation keeps shoreline readings in the upper 70s while inland areas approach the low 80s, producing the narrow range that underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 80-81°F. Only a significant unexpected clearing of clouds or wind shift could push readings into the mid-80s, an outcome current guidance assigns low likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 5?
80-81°F 98%
82-83°F 4%
84-85°F 1.0%
86-87°F <1%
$43,200 Vol.
$43,200 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
98%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 98%
82-83°F 4%
84-85°F 1.0%
86-87°F <1%
$43,200 Vol.
$43,200 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
73°F or below
$595 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,894 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$12,921 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$7,061 Vol.
98%
82-83°F
$3,751 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$6,985 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$2,360 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,140 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeast winds off Lake Michigan and post-frontal cooling have moderated Chicago temperatures on September 5, 2026, after early-month highs reached the mid-90s. Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a daily maximum of 80-81°F at primary reporting stations such as O’Hare, consistent with the historical average high near 80°F for the date. Lake-effect moderation keeps shoreline readings in the upper 70s while inland areas approach the low 80s, producing the narrow range that underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 80-81°F. Only a significant unexpected clearing of clouds or wind shift could push readings into the mid-80s, an outcome current guidance assigns low likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$43,200End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northeast winds off Lake Michigan and post-frontal cooling have moderated Chicago temperatures on September 5, 2026, after early-month highs reached the mid-90s. Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a daily maximum of 80-81°F at primary reporting stations such as O’Hare, consistent with the historical average high near 80°F for the date. Lake-effect moderation keeps shoreline readings in the upper 70s while inland areas approach the low 80s, producing the narrow range that underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 80-81°F. Only a significant unexpected clearing of clouds or wind shift could push readings into the mid-80s, an outcome current guidance assigns low likelihood.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,200End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast winds off Lake Michigan and post-frontal cooling have moderated Chicago temperatures on September 5, 2026, after early-month highs reached the mid-90s. Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models converge on a daily maximum of 80-81°F at primary reporting stations such as O’Hare, consistent with the historical average high near 80°F for the date. Lake-effect moderation keeps shoreline readings in the upper 70s while inland areas approach the low 80s, producing the narrow range that underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 80-81°F. Only a significant unexpected clearing of clouds or wind shift could push readings into the mid-80s, an outcome current guidance assigns low likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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