**Jaques Wagner (PT) leads trader consensus for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate contest at 60%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17.2%) and João Roma (5.5%).** Recent August polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel show Rui Costa (PT) dominating first-place intentions while Wagner consistently ranks second in consolidated or second-vote scenarios, reflecting PT’s structural advantage in the state and the split opposition vote between Coronel (Republicanos) and Roma (PL). Wagner’s positioning has stabilized after a June 2026 Federal Police operation tied to the Banco Master case prompted a temporary dip in some surveys. High shares of undecided voters (around 22%) and blank/null ballots sustain uncertainty among lower-polling candidates, but no late developments have shifted the established ordering. The two-seat, single-round format favors the top two finishers, reinforcing market pricing around Wagner as the probable runner-up.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 60%
Angelo Coronel 17.2%
Rui Costa 14.5%
João Roma 5.5%
$30,077 Vol.
$30,077 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
60%
Angelo Coronel
17%
Rui Costa
14%
João Roma
6%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Jaques Wagner 60%
Angelo Coronel 17.2%
Rui Costa 14.5%
João Roma 5.5%
$30,077 Vol.
$30,077 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$19,193 Vol.
60%
Angelo Coronel
$1,506 Vol.
17%
Rui Costa
$4,601 Vol.
14%
João Roma
$989 Vol.
6%
Carlos Sodré
$652 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$570 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$488 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$673 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$654 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$751 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner (PT) leads trader consensus for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate contest at 60%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17.2%) and João Roma (5.5%).** Recent August polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel show Rui Costa (PT) dominating first-place intentions while Wagner consistently ranks second in consolidated or second-vote scenarios, reflecting PT’s structural advantage in the state and the split opposition vote between Coronel (Republicanos) and Roma (PL). Wagner’s positioning has stabilized after a June 2026 Federal Police operation tied to the Banco Master case prompted a temporary dip in some surveys. High shares of undecided voters (around 22%) and blank/null ballots sustain uncertainty among lower-polling candidates, but no late developments have shifted the established ordering. The two-seat, single-round format favors the top two finishers, reinforcing market pricing around Wagner as the probable runner-up.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$30,077End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner (PT) leads trader consensus for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate contest at 60%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17.2%) and João Roma (5.5%).** Recent August polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel show Rui Costa (PT) dominating first-place intentions while Wagner consistently ranks second in consolidated or second-vote scenarios, reflecting PT’s structural advantage in the state and the split opposition vote between Coronel (Republicanos) and Roma (PL). Wagner’s positioning has stabilized after a June 2026 Federal Police operation tied to the Banco Master case prompted a temporary dip in some surveys. High shares of undecided voters (around 22%) and blank/null ballots sustain uncertainty among lower-polling candidates, but no late developments have shifted the established ordering. The two-seat, single-round format favors the top two finishers, reinforcing market pricing around Wagner as the probable runner-up.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$30,077End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Jaques Wagner (PT) leads trader consensus for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate contest at 60%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17.2%) and João Roma (5.5%).** Recent August polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel show Rui Costa (PT) dominating first-place intentions while Wagner consistently ranks second in consolidated or second-vote scenarios, reflecting PT’s structural advantage in the state and the split opposition vote between Coronel (Republicanos) and Roma (PL). Wagner’s positioning has stabilized after a June 2026 Federal Police operation tied to the Banco Master case prompted a temporary dip in some surveys. High shares of undecided voters (around 22%) and blank/null ballots sustain uncertainty among lower-polling candidates, but no late developments have shifted the established ordering. The two-seat, single-round format favors the top two finishers, reinforcing market pricing around Wagner as the probable runner-up.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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