Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent first elected in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with Grijalva's uncontested primary win and the Republican opponent's similarly unopposed path, has produced trader consensus around a 95% probability for the Democratic nominee. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive challenges or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Factors that could narrow the gap include late-cycle national political swings, turnout surprises among key demographic groups, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent's standing before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$17,059 Vol.
$17,059 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$17,059 Vol.
$17,059 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,794 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$11,265 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent first elected in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with Grijalva's uncontested primary win and the Republican opponent's similarly unopposed path, has produced trader consensus around a 95% probability for the Democratic nominee. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive challenges or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Factors that could narrow the gap include late-cycle national political swings, turnout surprises among key demographic groups, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent's standing before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$17,059End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent first elected in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with Grijalva's uncontested primary win and the Republican opponent's similarly unopposed path, has produced trader consensus around a 95% probability for the Democratic nominee. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive challenges or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Factors that could narrow the gap include late-cycle national political swings, turnout surprises among key demographic groups, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent's standing before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,059End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent first elected in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona's 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with Grijalva's uncontested primary win and the Republican opponent's similarly unopposed path, has produced trader consensus around a 95% probability for the Democratic nominee. Recent primary results and the absence of competitive challenges or major shifts in voter registration reinforce this positioning. Factors that could narrow the gap include late-cycle national political swings, turnout surprises among key demographic groups, or unforeseen developments affecting the incumbent's standing before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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