The Democratic hold on New Jersey’s 11th congressional district commands overwhelming trader consensus due to its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and the April 2026 special election victory by incumbent Analilia Mejia, who secured roughly 60 percent against Republican Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s June 2026 primary win with over 80 percent of the vote further consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. The district’s suburban northern New Jersey composition, including strong Democratic margins in Essex and Morris counties, has favored the party since Mikie Sherrill flipped the seat in 2018. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. A national Republican wave, sharp shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or late developments involving Mejia could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$39,565 Vol.
$39,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$39,565 Vol.
$39,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,591 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$15,975 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on New Jersey’s 11th congressional district commands overwhelming trader consensus due to its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and the April 2026 special election victory by incumbent Analilia Mejia, who secured roughly 60 percent against Republican Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s June 2026 primary win with over 80 percent of the vote further consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. The district’s suburban northern New Jersey composition, including strong Democratic margins in Essex and Morris counties, has favored the party since Mikie Sherrill flipped the seat in 2018. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. A national Republican wave, sharp shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or late developments involving Mejia could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on New Jersey’s 11th congressional district commands overwhelming trader consensus due to its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and the April 2026 special election victory by incumbent Analilia Mejia, who secured roughly 60 percent against Republican Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s June 2026 primary win with over 80 percent of the vote further consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. The district’s suburban northern New Jersey composition, including strong Democratic margins in Essex and Morris counties, has favored the party since Mikie Sherrill flipped the seat in 2018. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. A national Republican wave, sharp shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or late developments involving Mejia could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic hold on New Jersey’s 11th congressional district commands overwhelming trader consensus due to its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and the April 2026 special election victory by incumbent Analilia Mejia, who secured roughly 60 percent against Republican Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s June 2026 primary win with over 80 percent of the vote further consolidated party support ahead of the November general election. The district’s suburban northern New Jersey composition, including strong Democratic margins in Essex and Morris counties, has favored the party since Mikie Sherrill flipped the seat in 2018. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with historical base rates for incumbents in similar terrain. A national Republican wave, sharp shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, or late developments involving Mejia could narrow the margin, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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