Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November general election, reflecting the seat's D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Mejia secured the nomination overwhelmingly in the June primary after winning the April special election by more than 20 points to fill the vacancy created by Mikie Sherrill's resignation. Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, a local councilman, faces structural headwinds in a district with a Democratic registration edge and suburban voter trends favoring the incumbent party. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as major scandals, significant health events, or sharp national political shifts could still narrow the margin, though the timeline before November offers limited opportunity for such factors to materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$39,565 Vol.
$39,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$39,565 Vol.
$39,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,591 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$15,975 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November general election, reflecting the seat's D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Mejia secured the nomination overwhelmingly in the June primary after winning the April special election by more than 20 points to fill the vacancy created by Mikie Sherrill's resignation. Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, a local councilman, faces structural headwinds in a district with a Democratic registration edge and suburban voter trends favoring the incumbent party. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as major scandals, significant health events, or sharp national political shifts could still narrow the margin, though the timeline before November offers limited opportunity for such factors to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November general election, reflecting the seat's D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Mejia secured the nomination overwhelmingly in the June primary after winning the April special election by more than 20 points to fill the vacancy created by Mikie Sherrill's resignation. Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, a local councilman, faces structural headwinds in a district with a Democratic registration edge and suburban voter trends favoring the incumbent party. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as major scandals, significant health events, or sharp national political shifts could still narrow the margin, though the timeline before November offers limited opportunity for such factors to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Analilia Mejia holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 11th congressional district heading into the November general election, reflecting the seat's D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Mejia secured the nomination overwhelmingly in the June primary after winning the April special election by more than 20 points to fill the vacancy created by Mikie Sherrill's resignation. Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, a local councilman, faces structural headwinds in a district with a Democratic registration edge and suburban voter trends favoring the incumbent party. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as major scandals, significant health events, or sharp national political shifts could still narrow the margin, though the timeline before November offers limited opportunity for such factors to materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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