The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1 percent, has anchored trader expectations for at least one additional hike before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants anticipate further tightening this year amid headline PCE inflation projected at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core measures still well above the 2 percent target. Resilient GDP growth, a stable labor market, and persistent price pressures from energy costs, tariffs, and strong demand have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 87 percent odds of another 25 basis point move by December, aligning closely with the 86.5 percent market-implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or tariff-related inflation data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated87% chance
$70,734 Vol.
$70,734 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
87% chance
$70,734 Vol.
$70,734 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1 percent, has anchored trader expectations for at least one additional hike before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants anticipate further tightening this year amid headline PCE inflation projected at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core measures still well above the 2 percent target. Resilient GDP growth, a stable labor market, and persistent price pressures from energy costs, tariffs, and strong demand have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 87 percent odds of another 25 basis point move by December, aligning closely with the 86.5 percent market-implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or tariff-related inflation data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$70,734End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1 percent, has anchored trader expectations for at least one additional hike before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants anticipate further tightening this year amid headline PCE inflation projected at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core measures still well above the 2 percent target. Resilient GDP growth, a stable labor market, and persistent price pressures from energy costs, tariffs, and strong demand have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 87 percent odds of another 25 basis point move by December, aligning closely with the 86.5 percent market-implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or tariff-related inflation data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$70,734End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end 2026 rate of 4.1 percent, has anchored trader expectations for at least one additional hike before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants anticipate further tightening this year amid headline PCE inflation projected at 3.7 percent for 2026 and core measures still well above the 2 percent target. Resilient GDP growth, a stable labor market, and persistent price pressures from energy costs, tariffs, and strong demand have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 87 percent odds of another 25 basis point move by December, aligning closely with the 86.5 percent market-implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any shifts in geopolitical or tariff-related inflation data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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