High-stakes competition for House control, framed as a referendum on the Trump administration, is sustaining elevated engagement in the 2026 midterms. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by 6-9 points, with Trump approval near 38% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living issues, while primary turnout data and modest youth registration gains signal stronger mobilization than in prior off-year cycles. Narrow majorities, redistricting shifts, and competitive districts have nationalized the contest, pushing trader consensus toward the 115-130 million vote range. Historical midterm totals of roughly 100-115 million provide the baseline, tempered by the absence of a presidential race, though sustained enthusiasm gaps or targeted get-out-the-vote efforts in battlegrounds could still shift final participation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated125-130m 23%
115-120m 19%
120-125m 17%
110-115m 13%
$28,372 Vol.
$28,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
6%
105-110m
7%
110-115m
13%
115-120m
19%
120-125m
17%
125-130m
23%
130m+
5%
125-130m 23%
115-120m 19%
120-125m 17%
110-115m 13%
$28,372 Vol.
$28,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$603 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$609 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,723 Vol.
1%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$1,215 Vol.
6%
105-110m
$931 Vol.
7%
110-115m
$4,475 Vol.
13%
115-120m
$4,662 Vol.
19%
120-125m
$8,991 Vol.
17%
125-130m
$3,351 Vol.
23%
130m+
$1,433 Vol.
5%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.High-stakes competition for House control, framed as a referendum on the Trump administration, is sustaining elevated engagement in the 2026 midterms. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by 6-9 points, with Trump approval near 38% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living issues, while primary turnout data and modest youth registration gains signal stronger mobilization than in prior off-year cycles. Narrow majorities, redistricting shifts, and competitive districts have nationalized the contest, pushing trader consensus toward the 115-130 million vote range. Historical midterm totals of roughly 100-115 million provide the baseline, tempered by the absence of a presidential race, though sustained enthusiasm gaps or targeted get-out-the-vote efforts in battlegrounds could still shift final participation.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$28,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.High-stakes competition for House control, framed as a referendum on the Trump administration, is sustaining elevated engagement in the 2026 midterms. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by 6-9 points, with Trump approval near 38% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living issues, while primary turnout data and modest youth registration gains signal stronger mobilization than in prior off-year cycles. Narrow majorities, redistricting shifts, and competitive districts have nationalized the contest, pushing trader consensus toward the 115-130 million vote range. Historical midterm totals of roughly 100-115 million provide the baseline, tempered by the absence of a presidential race, though sustained enthusiasm gaps or targeted get-out-the-vote efforts in battlegrounds could still shift final participation.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$28,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High-stakes competition for House control, framed as a referendum on the Trump administration, is sustaining elevated engagement in the 2026 midterms. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by 6-9 points, with Trump approval near 38% amid voter frustration over cost-of-living issues, while primary turnout data and modest youth registration gains signal stronger mobilization than in prior off-year cycles. Narrow majorities, redistricting shifts, and competitive districts have nationalized the contest, pushing trader consensus toward the 115-130 million vote range. Historical midterm totals of roughly 100-115 million provide the baseline, tempered by the absence of a presidential race, though sustained enthusiasm gaps or targeted get-out-the-vote efforts in battlegrounds could still shift final participation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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