The Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici holds a commanding lead in Oregon's 1st congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus pricing near 95 percent for a Democratic victory. The district's partisan voting index, consistently rated D+20 or stronger, combined with Bonamici's consistent general-election margins above 68 percent in recent cycles, anchors expectations. She secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl emerged from a low-turnout contest. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors that could narrow the gap include a substantial national Republican wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments that shift turnout among key voting blocs in the Portland suburbs and coastal counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOR-01 House Election Winner
OR-01 House Election Winner
$12,660 Vol.
$12,660 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$12,660 Vol.
$12,660 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,566 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$2,094 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici holds a commanding lead in Oregon's 1st congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus pricing near 95 percent for a Democratic victory. The district's partisan voting index, consistently rated D+20 or stronger, combined with Bonamici's consistent general-election margins above 68 percent in recent cycles, anchors expectations. She secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl emerged from a low-turnout contest. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors that could narrow the gap include a substantial national Republican wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments that shift turnout among key voting blocs in the Portland suburbs and coastal counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$12,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici holds a commanding lead in Oregon's 1st congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus pricing near 95 percent for a Democratic victory. The district's partisan voting index, consistently rated D+20 or stronger, combined with Bonamici's consistent general-election margins above 68 percent in recent cycles, anchors expectations. She secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl emerged from a low-turnout contest. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors that could narrow the gap include a substantial national Republican wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments that shift turnout among key voting blocs in the Portland suburbs and coastal counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,660End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici holds a commanding lead in Oregon's 1st congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus pricing near 95 percent for a Democratic victory. The district's partisan voting index, consistently rated D+20 or stronger, combined with Bonamici's consistent general-election margins above 68 percent in recent cycles, anchors expectations. She secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary with roughly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl emerged from a low-turnout contest. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors that could narrow the gap include a substantial national Republican wave, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments that shift turnout among key voting blocs in the Portland suburbs and coastal counties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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