Traders assign overwhelming probability to David Crowley finishing under a 1% margin of victory in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor because early returns show him leading Francesca Hong by roughly 0.4 percentage points, or a few thousand votes, with the bulk of ballots counted. The race tightened after several high-profile dropouts narrowed the field to Crowley, the establishment-backed Milwaukee County executive endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, and Hong, the progressive state representative. Remaining precincts and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots could still shift the exact margin, while a formal recount or official certification process remains available if the final difference stays minimal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley <1% 99.3%
Crowley 1–2% 1.0%
Hong 1–2% <1%
Crowley 4–5% <1%
NEW
$95,298 Vol.
NEW
$95,298 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
<1%
Hong 5–6%
<1%
Hong 4–5%
<1%
Hong 3–4%
<1%
Hong 2–3%
<1%
Hong 1–2%
1%
Hong <1%
<1%
Crowley <1%
99%
Crowley 1–2%
1%
Crowley 2–3%
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
1%
Crowley 4–5%
1%
Crowley 5–6%
<1%
Crowley 6%+
<1%
Crowley <1% 99.3%
Crowley 1–2% 1.0%
Hong 1–2% <1%
Crowley 4–5% <1%
NEW
$95,298 Vol.
NEW
$95,298 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
$12,563 Vol.
<1%
Hong 5–6%
$3,714 Vol.
<1%
Hong 4–5%
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
Hong 3–4%
$11,011 Vol.
<1%
Hong 2–3%
$2,738 Vol.
<1%
Hong 1–2%
$7,168 Vol.
1%
Hong <1%
$4,537 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <1%
$18,617 Vol.
99%
Crowley 1–2%
$9,809 Vol.
1%
Crowley 2–3%
$7,828 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
$4,234 Vol.
1%
Crowley 4–5%
$2,286 Vol.
1%
Crowley 5–6%
$3,312 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 6%+
$4,102 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Traders assign overwhelming probability to David Crowley finishing under a 1% margin of victory in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor because early returns show him leading Francesca Hong by roughly 0.4 percentage points, or a few thousand votes, with the bulk of ballots counted. The race tightened after several high-profile dropouts narrowed the field to Crowley, the establishment-backed Milwaukee County executive endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, and Hong, the progressive state representative. Remaining precincts and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots could still shift the exact margin, while a formal recount or official certification process remains available if the final difference stays minimal.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$95,298End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Traders assign overwhelming probability to David Crowley finishing under a 1% margin of victory in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor because early returns show him leading Francesca Hong by roughly 0.4 percentage points, or a few thousand votes, with the bulk of ballots counted. The race tightened after several high-profile dropouts narrowed the field to Crowley, the establishment-backed Milwaukee County executive endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, and Hong, the progressive state representative. Remaining precincts and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots could still shift the exact margin, while a formal recount or official certification process remains available if the final difference stays minimal.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$95,298End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign overwhelming probability to David Crowley finishing under a 1% margin of victory in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor because early returns show him leading Francesca Hong by roughly 0.4 percentage points, or a few thousand votes, with the bulk of ballots counted. The race tightened after several high-profile dropouts narrowed the field to Crowley, the establishment-backed Milwaukee County executive endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, and Hong, the progressive state representative. Remaining precincts and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots could still shift the exact margin, while a formal recount or official certification process remains available if the final difference stays minimal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions