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icon for ¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?

¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?

icon for ¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?

¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?

NUEVO
30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$1,293 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de septiembre

$452 Vol.

34%

31 de diciembre

$841 Vol.

70%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has exercised his constitutional clemency authority frequently during his second term, issuing more than 1,700 grants since January 2025, including batches of 30 actions in early September 2026 covering drug offenses, firearms violations, bribery, and other federal cases. Recent grants on September 3–4 targeted individuals such as a former Navy sailor, a Philadelphia union leader, and associates with ties to public figures, often following advocacy outside the traditional Justice Department process. Trader assessments of near-term pardon activity reflect this pattern of periodic executive actions, alongside reported networks of influencers and brokers seeking expedited review, as well as Democratic pledges for congressional scrutiny of clemency practices announced on September 15. Scheduled announcements or further grants tied to specific policy priorities could influence resolution of time-bound markets before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,293
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has exercised his constitutional clemency authority frequently during his second term, issuing more than 1,700 grants since January 2025, including batches of 30 actions in early September 2026 covering drug offenses, firearms violations, bribery, and other federal cases. Recent grants on September 3–4 targeted individuals such as a former Navy sailor, a Philadelphia union leader, and associates with ties to public figures, often following advocacy outside the traditional Justice Department process. Trader assessments of near-term pardon activity reflect this pattern of periodic executive actions, alongside reported networks of influencers and brokers seeking expedited review, as well as Democratic pledges for congressional scrutiny of clemency practices announced on September 15. Scheduled announcements or further grants tied to specific policy priorities could influence resolution of time-bound markets before key deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,293
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 70%, seguido de "30 de septiembre" con 34%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 70¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Sep 14, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 70%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de septiembre" con 34%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Trump perdonará a alguien antes de...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.