Recent inflation data showing persistence above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, coupled with supply shocks in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, market-implied odds currently favor no change at 57.5% while assigning 38% probability to a 25 bp increase. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and the latest Summary of Economic Projections indicating at least one potential tightening this year reinforce the hawkish tilt in trader positioning. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside further CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambios 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
Sin cambios
57%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
2%
Sin cambios 57%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 4.9%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$550 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$598 Vol.
5%
Sin cambios
$818 Vol.
57%
25 bps increase
$1,250 Vol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$572 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing persistence above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, coupled with supply shocks in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, market-implied odds currently favor no change at 57.5% while assigning 38% probability to a 25 bp increase. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and the latest Summary of Economic Projections indicating at least one potential tightening this year reinforce the hawkish tilt in trader positioning. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside further CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$3,788Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data showing persistence above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, coupled with supply shocks in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, market-implied odds currently favor no change at 57.5% while assigning 38% probability to a 25 bp increase. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and the latest Summary of Economic Projections indicating at least one potential tightening this year reinforce the hawkish tilt in trader positioning. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside further CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$3,788Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing persistence above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, coupled with supply shocks in energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, market-implied odds currently favor no change at 57.5% while assigning 38% probability to a 25 bp increase. Solid economic growth, resilient labor market conditions, and the latest Summary of Economic Projections indicating at least one potential tightening this year reinforce the hawkish tilt in trader positioning. Upcoming September and December meetings, alongside further CPI and employment releases, remain key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes