Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 4.9%
$289,259 Vol.
$289,259 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
42%
2 (50 bps)
22%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 42%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 4.9%
$289,259 Vol.
$289,259 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$102,227 Vol.
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,256 Vol.
42%
2 (50 bps)
$69,740 Vol.
22%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$31,580 Vol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volumen
$289,259Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$289,259Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong August employment data showing 162,000 jobs added—well above forecasts—along with a steady 4.1% unemployment rate has shifted trader sentiment toward modest Fed tightening in 2026, elevating the implied probability of one 25-basis-point hike to 41.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have reinforced this view, as reflected in CME FedWatch pricing a roughly 58% chance of a September move. The June dot plot median already pointed to a higher year-end funds rate around 3.8%, though economists remain split between zero and two hikes overall. The upcoming September FOMC decision and fresh CPI release will serve as key near-term catalysts for any further repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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