Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSubida
84% probabilidad
$10,491 Vol.
$10,491 Vol.
31 dic 2028
Subida
84% probabilidad
$10,491 Vol.
$10,491 Vol.
31 dic 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volumen
$10,491Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$10,491Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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