Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.8% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting his public commitment to completing a full second term and the absence of institutional pressures or health announcements that would prompt an early exit. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign outside extraordinary circumstances, and current polling trends plus legislative priorities on immigration, tariffs, and executive actions indicate sustained focus on the office through at least 2028. The market resolves on confirmed departure before the deadline, leaving room for low-probability shifts from acute health events, legal developments, or unforeseen crises, though no such catalysts appear active in official statements or scheduling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$527,810 Vol.
$527,810 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$527,810 Vol.
$527,810 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.8% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting his public commitment to completing a full second term and the absence of institutional pressures or health announcements that would prompt an early exit. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign outside extraordinary circumstances, and current polling trends plus legislative priorities on immigration, tariffs, and executive actions indicate sustained focus on the office through at least 2028. The market resolves on confirmed departure before the deadline, leaving room for low-probability shifts from acute health events, legal developments, or unforeseen crises, though no such catalysts appear active in official statements or scheduling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volumen
$527,810Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.8% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting his public commitment to completing a full second term and the absence of institutional pressures or health announcements that would prompt an early exit. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign outside extraordinary circumstances, and current polling trends plus legislative priorities on immigration, tariffs, and executive actions indicate sustained focus on the office through at least 2028. The market resolves on confirmed departure before the deadline, leaving room for low-probability shifts from acute health events, legal developments, or unforeseen crises, though no such catalysts appear active in official statements or scheduling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$527,810Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign Donald Trump a 96.8% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting his public commitment to completing a full second term and the absence of institutional pressures or health announcements that would prompt an early exit. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign outside extraordinary circumstances, and current polling trends plus legislative priorities on immigration, tariffs, and executive actions indicate sustained focus on the office through at least 2028. The market resolves on confirmed departure before the deadline, leaving room for low-probability shifts from acute health events, legal developments, or unforeseen crises, though no such catalysts appear active in official statements or scheduling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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