Republican majorities in Congress continue to anchor the 94.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains in office through the end of 2026. Structural barriers to removal include the two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction following any House impeachment, a threshold unmet in prior proceedings and unlikely without bipartisan support that has not emerged. Earlier 2026 calls for action tied to foreign policy statements and fitness concerns produced resolutions but no sustained removal process. Recent executive orders on tariffs, drug pricing, and national security demonstrate ongoing presidential functions without triggering 25th Amendment invocations or resignation signals. Upcoming November midterms represent the nearest scheduled event that could alter chamber control, yet current trader consensus reflects the absence of immediate catalysts capable of overcoming these institutional thresholds before year-end.