USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data and deflation patterns at Kīlauea’s summit currently drive the strongest market-implied probability for Episode 53 fountaining on August 11–12. Following Episode 52, inflationary tilt reversed into sustained deflation starting around August 6–7, mirroring the 2–3 day precursory deflation seen before Episodes 51 and 52; models now narrow the window to August 10–13, with ongoing gas pistoning and vent glow indicating magma recharge. Traders assign lower odds to August 9–10 due to the timing of recent deflation steps and to August 13 or later if the pattern extends, consistent with historical episode spacing and real-time seismic/tilt monitoring. Updated forecasts from authoritative USGS sources remain the key variable that could shift consensus ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuándo comenzará el Episodio 53 de Kīlauea?
¿Cuándo comenzará el Episodio 53 de Kīlauea?
11-12 de agosto 52%
13 de agosto o después 30%
9-10 de agosto 13%
8 de agosto o antes 1.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
8 de agosto o antes
2%
9-10 de agosto
13%
11-12 de agosto
52%
13 de agosto o después
30%
11-12 de agosto 52%
13 de agosto o después 30%
9-10 de agosto 13%
8 de agosto o antes 1.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
8 de agosto o antes
$284 Vol.
2%
9-10 de agosto
$208 Vol.
13%
11-12 de agosto
$87 Vol.
52%
13 de agosto o después
$759 Vol.
30%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data and deflation patterns at Kīlauea’s summit currently drive the strongest market-implied probability for Episode 53 fountaining on August 11–12. Following Episode 52, inflationary tilt reversed into sustained deflation starting around August 6–7, mirroring the 2–3 day precursory deflation seen before Episodes 51 and 52; models now narrow the window to August 10–13, with ongoing gas pistoning and vent glow indicating magma recharge. Traders assign lower odds to August 9–10 due to the timing of recent deflation steps and to August 13 or later if the pattern extends, consistent with historical episode spacing and real-time seismic/tilt monitoring. Updated forecasts from authoritative USGS sources remain the key variable that could shift consensus ahead of resolution.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volumen
$1,339Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data and deflation patterns at Kīlauea’s summit currently drive the strongest market-implied probability for Episode 53 fountaining on August 11–12. Following Episode 52, inflationary tilt reversed into sustained deflation starting around August 6–7, mirroring the 2–3 day precursory deflation seen before Episodes 51 and 52; models now narrow the window to August 10–13, with ongoing gas pistoning and vent glow indicating magma recharge. Traders assign lower odds to August 9–10 due to the timing of recent deflation steps and to August 13 or later if the pattern extends, consistent with historical episode spacing and real-time seismic/tilt monitoring. Updated forecasts from authoritative USGS sources remain the key variable that could shift consensus ahead of resolution.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volumen
$1,339Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data and deflation patterns at Kīlauea’s summit currently drive the strongest market-implied probability for Episode 53 fountaining on August 11–12. Following Episode 52, inflationary tilt reversed into sustained deflation starting around August 6–7, mirroring the 2–3 day precursory deflation seen before Episodes 51 and 52; models now narrow the window to August 10–13, with ongoing gas pistoning and vent glow indicating magma recharge. Traders assign lower odds to August 9–10 due to the timing of recent deflation steps and to August 13 or later if the pattern extends, consistent with historical episode spacing and real-time seismic/tilt monitoring. Updated forecasts from authoritative USGS sources remain the key variable that could shift consensus ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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