A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +1.5°C and models favoring a very strong event by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing August global temperature anomalies toward the 1.25–1.29°C or higher bins. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation above pre-industrial levels, while the lagged atmospheric response to Pacific heat release and any residual effects from prior years introduce modest upward pressure. Forecast model spread in ENSO intensification timing and strength, combined with natural variability in other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, creates the tight market split between the two leading outcomes and underscores inherent uncertainty in monthly anomaly resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAgosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Agosto 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
>1,29ºC 42%
1,25–1,29ºC 41%
1,20–1,24ºC 21%
1,15–1,19ºC 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
2%
1,10–1,14ºC
4%
1,15–1,19ºC
9%
1,20–1,24ºC
21%
1,25–1,29ºC
35%
>1,29ºC
42%
>1,29ºC 42%
1,25–1,29ºC 41%
1,20–1,24ºC 21%
1,15–1,19ºC 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$344 Vol.
2%
1,10–1,14ºC
$394 Vol.
4%
1,15–1,19ºC
$333 Vol.
9%
1,20–1,24ºC
$82 Vol.
21%
1,25–1,29ºC
$201 Vol.
35%
>1,29ºC
$255 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +1.5°C and models favoring a very strong event by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing August global temperature anomalies toward the 1.25–1.29°C or higher bins. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation above pre-industrial levels, while the lagged atmospheric response to Pacific heat release and any residual effects from prior years introduce modest upward pressure. Forecast model spread in ENSO intensification timing and strength, combined with natural variability in other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, creates the tight market split between the two leading outcomes and underscores inherent uncertainty in monthly anomaly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,609Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +1.5°C and models favoring a very strong event by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing August global temperature anomalies toward the 1.25–1.29°C or higher bins. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation above pre-industrial levels, while the lagged atmospheric response to Pacific heat release and any residual effects from prior years introduce modest upward pressure. Forecast model spread in ENSO intensification timing and strength, combined with natural variability in other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, creates the tight market split between the two leading outcomes and underscores inherent uncertainty in monthly anomaly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$1,609Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +1.5°C and models favoring a very strong event by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing August global temperature anomalies toward the 1.25–1.29°C or higher bins. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation above pre-industrial levels, while the lagged atmospheric response to Pacific heat release and any residual effects from prior years introduce modest upward pressure. Forecast model spread in ENSO intensification timing and strength, combined with natural variability in other modes such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, creates the tight market split between the two leading outcomes and underscores inherent uncertainty in monthly anomaly resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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