A strong and strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through late 2026, is the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied probability on “No.” El Niño reliably boosts vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, disrupting organization and intensification of tropical cyclones. NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces this outlook with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November season. As of mid-August, activity remains limited to three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes formed yet. This aligns with Colorado State University’s well-below-average projections and reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities. Even in active seasons, Category 4 landfalls (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are infrequent events; combined with current steering patterns and suppressed genesis, the scientific conditions support trader consensus favoring no such U.S. landfall before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
16% probabilidad
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
16% probabilidad
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
30 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong and strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through late 2026, is the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied probability on “No.” El Niño reliably boosts vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, disrupting organization and intensification of tropical cyclones. NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces this outlook with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November season.
As of mid-August, activity remains limited to three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes formed yet. This aligns with Colorado State University’s well-below-average projections and reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities. Even in active seasons, Category 4 landfalls (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are infrequent events; combined with current steering patterns and suppressed genesis, the scientific conditions support trader consensus favoring no such U.S. landfall before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$340,152Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong and strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through late 2026, is the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied probability on “No.” El Niño reliably boosts vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, disrupting organization and intensification of tropical cyclones. NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces this outlook with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November season.
As of mid-August, activity remains limited to three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes formed yet. This aligns with Colorado State University’s well-below-average projections and reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities. Even in active seasons, Category 4 landfalls (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are infrequent events; combined with current steering patterns and suppressed genesis, the scientific conditions support trader consensus favoring no such U.S. landfall before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$340,152Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A strong and strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through late 2026, is the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied probability on “No.” El Niño reliably boosts vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, disrupting organization and intensification of tropical cyclones. NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces this outlook with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November season. As of mid-August, activity remains limited to three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes formed yet. This aligns with Colorado State University’s well-below-average projections and reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities. Even in active seasons, Category 4 landfalls (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) are infrequent events; combined with current steering patterns and suppressed genesis, the scientific conditions support trader consensus favoring no such U.S. landfall before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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