Recent global seismicity, including the M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia events earlier in August 2026, has elevated aftershock rates that USGS catalogs show often persist for days to weeks, pushing weekly M5.5+ counts above the long-term average of roughly 10–15 events. Natural week-to-week variance from background tectonic activity remains high, with no dominant new sequence flagged by current USGS or IRIS monitoring. Traders therefore spread probability across mid-range outcomes near the historical mean while assigning comparable weight to tails reflecting possible aftershock clusters or quiet periods, consistent with the close pricing between >13 and ≤6.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 17 al 23 de agosto?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 5.5 o más del 17 al 23 de agosto?
>13 20%
≤6 19%
8 13%
9 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
≤6
19%
7
12%
8
13%
9
13%
10
12%
11
10%
12
8%
13
8%
>13
20%
>13 20%
≤6 19%
8 13%
9 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
≤6
$630 Vol.
19%
7
$117 Vol.
12%
8
$131 Vol.
13%
9
$117 Vol.
13%
10
$117 Vol.
12%
11
$117 Vol.
10%
12
$122 Vol.
8%
13
$124 Vol.
8%
>13
$356 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity, including the M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia events earlier in August 2026, has elevated aftershock rates that USGS catalogs show often persist for days to weeks, pushing weekly M5.5+ counts above the long-term average of roughly 10–15 events. Natural week-to-week variance from background tectonic activity remains high, with no dominant new sequence flagged by current USGS or IRIS monitoring. Traders therefore spread probability across mid-range outcomes near the historical mean while assigning comparable weight to tails reflecting possible aftershock clusters or quiet periods, consistent with the close pricing between >13 and ≤6.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,831Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity, including the M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia events earlier in August 2026, has elevated aftershock rates that USGS catalogs show often persist for days to weeks, pushing weekly M5.5+ counts above the long-term average of roughly 10–15 events. Natural week-to-week variance from background tectonic activity remains high, with no dominant new sequence flagged by current USGS or IRIS monitoring. Traders therefore spread probability across mid-range outcomes near the historical mean while assigning comparable weight to tails reflecting possible aftershock clusters or quiet periods, consistent with the close pricing between >13 and ≤6.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$1,831Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismicity, including the M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia events earlier in August 2026, has elevated aftershock rates that USGS catalogs show often persist for days to weeks, pushing weekly M5.5+ counts above the long-term average of roughly 10–15 events. Natural week-to-week variance from background tectonic activity remains high, with no dominant new sequence flagged by current USGS or IRIS monitoring. Traders therefore spread probability across mid-range outcomes near the historical mean while assigning comparable weight to tails reflecting possible aftershock clusters or quiet periods, consistent with the close pricing between >13 and ≤6.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Sí
¿Habrá exactamente 0 terremotos de magnitud 6.5 o superior en todo el mundo del 17 al 23 de agosto?
42%
Sí
¿Habrá exactamente 2 terremotos de magnitud 6.5 o superior en todo el mundo del 10 de agosto al 16 de agosto?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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