SpaceX’s accelerated Starship V3 test campaign, including the May 2026 Flight 12 debut of Raptor 3 engines and progress on tower catches for both the Super Heavy booster and upper stage, underpins the 73% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Elon Musk has repeatedly targeted a 2026 demonstration of rapid, complete reuse through booster and ship recovery, propellant transfer tests, and high-cadence operations, with Flight 14 preparations signaling the next milestone toward operational capability. While engine relight issues and refurbishment timelines remain hurdles, the steady flight rate—13 total launches by mid-2026—and design focus on catch-and-reuse mechanics create strong trader confidence that Starship will achieve airplane-like reusability well ahead of the 2028 deadline.