The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics. The moment magnitude scale ties quake size directly to fault rupture length and slip, and USGS data confirm no known fault approaches the thousands of kilometers required for an M10 event. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960 along Chile's subduction zone, with all subsequent great quakes falling well below this threshold. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or activity capable of altering this pattern in the brief remaining window. Only an unprecedented planetary-scale rupture or non-tectonic trigger, both considered physically implausible, could shift the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics. The moment magnitude scale ties quake size directly to fault rupture length and slip, and USGS data confirm no known fault approaches the thousands of kilometers required for an M10 event. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960 along Chile's subduction zone, with all subsequent great quakes falling well below this threshold. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or activity capable of altering this pattern in the brief remaining window. Only an unprecedented planetary-scale rupture or non-tectonic trigger, both considered physically implausible, could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$792,663Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics. The moment magnitude scale ties quake size directly to fault rupture length and slip, and USGS data confirm no known fault approaches the thousands of kilometers required for an M10 event. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960 along Chile's subduction zone, with all subsequent great quakes falling well below this threshold. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or activity capable of altering this pattern in the brief remaining window. Only an unprecedented planetary-scale rupture or non-tectonic trigger, both considered physically implausible, could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$792,663Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain market consensus on "No" for a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental limits in Earth's tectonics. The moment magnitude scale ties quake size directly to fault rupture length and slip, and USGS data confirm no known fault approaches the thousands of kilometers required for an M10 event. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960 along Chile's subduction zone, with all subsequent great quakes falling well below this threshold. Ongoing global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or activity capable of altering this pattern in the brief remaining window. Only an unprecedented planetary-scale rupture or non-tectonic trigger, both considered physically implausible, could shift the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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