NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after completing only a flyby with Artemis II's successful April 2026 Orion flight aboard the SLS rocket. No commercial or international provider has announced a viable 2026 surface attempt, and the remaining months in the year preclude integration of untested human landing systems or additional deep-space demonstrations. Trader consensus at 99.1% reflects these verified timeline adjustments and hardware maturation needs, though an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or accelerated regulatory approval could theoretically compress schedules despite historical delays in crewed lunar operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$1,967,488 Vol.
$1,967,488 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$1,967,488 Vol.
$1,967,488 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after completing only a flyby with Artemis II's successful April 2026 Orion flight aboard the SLS rocket. No commercial or international provider has announced a viable 2026 surface attempt, and the remaining months in the year preclude integration of untested human landing systems or additional deep-space demonstrations. Trader consensus at 99.1% reflects these verified timeline adjustments and hardware maturation needs, though an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or accelerated regulatory approval could theoretically compress schedules despite historical delays in crewed lunar operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,967,488Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after completing only a flyby with Artemis II's successful April 2026 Orion flight aboard the SLS rocket. No commercial or international provider has announced a viable 2026 surface attempt, and the remaining months in the year preclude integration of untested human landing systems or additional deep-space demonstrations. Trader consensus at 99.1% reflects these verified timeline adjustments and hardware maturation needs, though an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or accelerated regulatory approval could theoretically compress schedules despite historical delays in crewed lunar operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,967,488Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after completing only a flyby with Artemis II's successful April 2026 Orion flight aboard the SLS rocket. No commercial or international provider has announced a viable 2026 surface attempt, and the remaining months in the year preclude integration of untested human landing systems or additional deep-space demonstrations. Trader consensus at 99.1% reflects these verified timeline adjustments and hardware maturation needs, though an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or accelerated regulatory approval could theoretically compress schedules despite historical delays in crewed lunar operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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