Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding position in Lexington County for the August 25 Republican runoff due to her strong primary performance there, where she finished first among a crowded field and benefited from local residency and name recognition as the appointed incumbent replacing her late brother. President Trump's endorsement, combined with superior fundraising and advertising spending in the compressed campaign, has consolidated support among Republican primary voters in the Midlands county. Ralph Norman drew his strongest backing from Upstate counties in the August 11 primary, limiting his penetration in Lexington. A decisive Norman surge in early voting or unusually high turnout from his base could narrow margins, though historical patterns in similar runoffs and Graham's county-level dominance make such shifts unlikely before resolution.