**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 2 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 2 de septiembre?
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
10°C 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C or higher
49%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
10°C 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
7°C or below
$31 Vol.
-
8°C
$11 Vol.
-
9°C
$10 Vol.
-
10°C
$10 Vol.
-
11°C
$10 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
-
13°C
$169 Vol.
-
14°C
$5 Vol.
-
15°C
$10 Vol.
50%
16°C
$10 Vol.
50%
17°C or higher
$18 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$285Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$285Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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