Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure and related capabilities at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to multiple intelligence assessments and IAEA reporting. Post-strike IAEA updates through early June 2026 show no major changes in Iran's program status, with limited inspector access, no verified resumption of uranium enrichment, and no evidence of active weaponization efforts. Iranian officials have stated they have no plans to recover stockpiled material or pursue weapons development. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic contacts, have extended estimated timelines for any potential test well beyond 2027 in trader assessments, supporting the strong consensus against an event before the market resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$202,497 Vol.
$202,497 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$202,497 Vol.
$202,497 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure and related capabilities at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to multiple intelligence assessments and IAEA reporting. Post-strike IAEA updates through early June 2026 show no major changes in Iran's program status, with limited inspector access, no verified resumption of uranium enrichment, and no evidence of active weaponization efforts. Iranian officials have stated they have no plans to recover stockpiled material or pursue weapons development. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic contacts, have extended estimated timelines for any potential test well beyond 2027 in trader assessments, supporting the strong consensus against an event before the market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$202,497Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure and related capabilities at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to multiple intelligence assessments and IAEA reporting. Post-strike IAEA updates through early June 2026 show no major changes in Iran's program status, with limited inspector access, no verified resumption of uranium enrichment, and no evidence of active weaponization efforts. Iranian officials have stated they have no plans to recover stockpiled material or pursue weapons development. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic contacts, have extended estimated timelines for any potential test well beyond 2027 in trader assessments, supporting the strong consensus against an event before the market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$202,497Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 substantially degraded enrichment infrastructure and related capabilities at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to multiple intelligence assessments and IAEA reporting. Post-strike IAEA updates through early June 2026 show no major changes in Iran's program status, with limited inspector access, no verified resumption of uranium enrichment, and no evidence of active weaponization efforts. Iranian officials have stated they have no plans to recover stockpiled material or pursue weapons development. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic contacts, have extended estimated timelines for any potential test well beyond 2027 in trader assessments, supporting the strong consensus against an event before the market resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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