Reza Pahlavi has publicly stated readiness to return to Iran as soon as conditions permit, even prior to full regime transition, and accepted a transitional leadership role following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. However, the Islamic Republic's security forces have maintained control, limiting opposition gains and preventing any verified entry by the exiled crown prince, who has not set foot in the country since 1978. Recent reporting highlights challenges including fragmented domestic support, donor fatigue, and questions over legitimacy after decades abroad, with Pahlavi focusing instead on international advocacy, European tours, and transition planning such as the Iran Prosperity Project. Trader assessments reflect these structural barriers and the regime's demonstrated resilience, though developments like coordinated uprisings, major defections, or shifts in international pressure within the resolution window could alter probabilities.