Netanyahu's position as prime minister remains tied to Israel's scheduled October 2026 legislative elections and the recent collapse of his governing coalition. Knesset dissolution in May, driven by ultra-Orthodox parties withdrawing support over military service exemptions, opened the door to a possible snap vote weeks earlier. Polling shows his Likud-led bloc trailing opposition alliances such as the Bennett-Lapid partnership, with his coalition short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. Netanyahu has confirmed he will run and expects victory, though sustained criticism over October 2023 security failures, war management, and legal proceedings continues to shape voter sentiment. Recent military exchanges with Iran and Hezbollah have reinforced his focus on security leadership without altering coalition arithmetic. Traders view the fall ballot as the primary trigger for any leadership change.